Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Life and death expectancies...not the same

Life expectancy is a very common term in debates and research on social security. What do people mean by life expectancy? John Payne from Duque University and his colleagues have performed an experiment, asking individuals the same question, but framed in alternative way. The question can refer to how long an individual expects to live, or to when he or she expects to die. Logically, the answer should be the same, but it is not.

For example, if the question is: "Do you expect to be alive by age 85"?, the answer in more pessimistic than when the question is: "How long do you expect to live?"

You can find the paper here.

The issue is important because it relates to the regulations on mandatory or statutory retirement ages, to the regulation to annuities markets, and to regulations on sales by insurance companies.

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